How the Montbon Score works
The Montbon Score is a 0-100 number summarizing the analysis of a ticker through 4 independent methods. It is neither a prediction nor a recommendation: it is a structured snapshot of the technical and fundamental picture, calibrated on the engine's real historical results.
The 4 pillars
- Technical analysis (up to 43 points)
- RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, ADX, volume and price structure on the daily timeframe.
- Elliott Wave + Multi-Timeframe (up to 30 points)
- Automatic Elliott Wave counting and trend alignment across daily, weekly and monthly timeframes.
- Fundamentals (up to 17 points)
- Valuation, profitability and balance-sheet strength where data is available.
- Bonus/Malus (up to 10 points)
- Context factors: market regime, momentum, cross-confirmations.
Calibration: the score states probability, not excitement
Every daily verdict on ~360 tracked tickers is recorded and compared with the actual price outcome after 7, 14, 30, 60 and 90 days. On this basis — over 21,900 measured 30-day outcomes — the score is calibrated: score bands are aligned with the actual historical win rate.
A concrete example of what this means: the data showed that raw scores above 75 won LESS often than the 60-70 band (over-extended setups tend to mean-revert). Calibration corrects this distortion: if a setup falls in a band that historically won 50% of the time, its score reflects that — however loudly the indicators shout.
RISK verdicts are tactical, with a 7-14 day horizon: across 16,100+ 7-day outcomes the historical probability of decline in that zone is 56-63%, while beyond 30 days the effect tends to invert (average rebound). This too is stated in the analysis.
The score breakdown is always visible: pillars + calibration line = final number. No unexplained figures.
Independent check: the public track record
Roughly 16,500 signals evaluated against the real market, updated daily, with win rates per verdict type and score band — including the periods where the engine got it wrong.
See the track record →Limits (stated)
- Historical probabilities are computed over a predominantly bullish market period (2025-2026) and are recalibrated periodically. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- Montbon Analytics is an informational and educational tool. It does not provide personalized financial advice and is not an authorized financial intermediary under MiFID II.
- Every investment decision remains the user's responsibility. Invested capital is at risk.