Cos'è Montbon Analytics?

Montbon Analytics è una piattaforma di analisi tecnica che combina onde di Elliott, Metodo Montbon e intelligenza artificiale per generare segnali di trading con score 0-100 e target di prezzo automatici.

Come funziona l'analisi con le onde di Elliott?

Il sistema identifica automaticamente i cicli di Elliott Wave su tutti i timeframe, calcola i livelli di Fibonacci, rileva divergenze e proietta i target di prezzo per ogni grado d'onda.

Cos'è il Metodo Montbon?

Il Metodo Montbon è un sistema proprietario di analisi tecnica che combina 4 pilastri: analisi tecnica classica, Elliott Wave, medie mobili multi-timeframe (MTF) e analisi fondamentale. Il risultato è uno score integrato 0-100 con livelli operativi automatici.

Sì, esiste un piano Free con 1 analisi gratuita senza login e 5 con account. I piani a pagamento partono da 1,99 EUR/mese (Basic, 30 analisi) fino a 24,99 EUR/mese (Elite, analisi illimitate).

I segnali di trading sono affidabili?

Montbon pubblica un track record verificabile di tutti i segnali generati, con win rate e rendimento medio storico consultabile nella sezione Track Record. I rendimenti passati non costituiscono un indicatore affidabile dei risultati futuri. Le analisi non costituiscono consulenza finanziaria.

A Practical Guide to Swing Trade Planning

A chart can look compelling at 10:15 a.m. and completely different after a volatile close. That is why a guide to swing trade planning starts before you place an order, not after price begins moving. The objective is not to predict every market turn. It is to define what must be true for a trade to qualify, what invalidates it, and how much capital it deserves.

Swing trading usually holds positions for several days to several weeks. That timeframe gives price room to develop, but it also exposes a position to earnings, macro releases, overnight gaps, and changing market leadership. A plan turns those variables into decisions you can make consistently rather than reactions you make under pressure.

What a Swing Trade Plan Must Answer

A useful plan is short enough to use and specific enough to prevent improvisation. Before entering, you should be able to state the setup, entry zone, stop-loss level, target, position size, and the conditions that would make you exit early.

The distinction between an idea and a trade plan matters. “This stock looks strong” is an idea. “I will enter only if price holds above the breakout level, with a stop below the prior support zone and a target that offers at least 2:1 reward relative to risk” is a plan.

You do not need certainty to trade. You need a defined asymmetry: a plausible upside that justifies the downside you accept if the thesis is wrong.

Start With the Market Context

A strong individual chart can still struggle when the broader market is under distribution. Before evaluating a candidate, check the direction and volatility of the index or crypto market that influences it, then assess whether its sector is leading or lagging.

This does not mean every trade requires a perfect bullish environment. Short setups may benefit from a weak market, while defensive sectors can behave differently during risk-off periods. The point is alignment. A long trade in a rising market and a leading sector has fewer headwinds than a long trade fighting both.

Also identify the calendar risk. Earnings, CPI releases, Federal Reserve decisions, jobs data, and major crypto events can produce gaps that make a precise stop-loss less effective. Holding through an event can be valid, but it should be a conscious choice reflected in smaller size or a wider risk allowance.

A Guide to Swing Trade Planning: Build the Setup First

The best entry level cannot rescue a weak setup. Define the pattern and the evidence behind it before focusing on execution.

For long trades, common swing setups include a breakout from a well-defined base, a pullback into support within an established uptrend, or a reversal after a failed breakdown. For short trades, the inverse applies: a breakdown from support, a bounce into resistance during a downtrend, or a failed breakout.

A setup becomes more credible when independent signals point in the same direction. Price structure may show higher highs and higher lows. Moving averages may be stacked positively across relevant timeframes. Momentum may confirm the move rather than diverge from it. Fundamental data may support relative strength, especially when the holding period could extend beyond a few sessions.

No single indicator should act as a permission slip. Indicators are inputs, not a verdict. The value comes from convergence and from recognizing when the pillars disagree. If technical structure is bullish but the stock is approaching earnings with deteriorating fundamentals, the trade may still be possible, but it deserves a lower conviction rating or no trade at all.

Define an Entry Zone, Not a Magical Price

Exact prices create false precision. Instead of deciding that you must buy at $100.00, define an entry zone based on the setup. For a pullback, that may be an area near a prior breakout level, a moving average, or a retracement zone. For a breakout, it may be a range just above resistance after confirmation from price and volume.

Then decide what confirms entry. You might require a daily close above resistance, a reclaim of a key level after an intraday dip, or a successful retest of the breakout area. The right trigger depends on the asset and your tolerance for missed opportunities versus false breakouts.

Entering early can improve reward-to-risk, but it carries more uncertainty. Waiting for confirmation may reduce false starts, but often means a higher entry and a less favorable ratio. Neither approach is universally superior. Use the approach that matches the setup and can be repeated without changing the rules mid-trade.

Put Risk Before Profit

A target is motivating. A stop is protective. The stop must be determined by market structure, not by the dollar amount you hope not to lose.

For a long position, a logical stop often sits below a support area, a recent swing low, or the point at which the bullish pattern is invalidated. For a short position, it generally sits above resistance or the invalidation point for the bearish thesis. Avoid placing stops at obvious round numbers if price routinely tests those levels in the asset you trade.

The distance between entry and stop defines your risk per share or unit. Position size then follows from your maximum acceptable loss.

For example, assume a $25,000 account and a rule that limits risk to 0.5% per trade. The maximum planned loss is $125. If your entry is $52 and your stop is $50.75, the risk is $1.25 per share. Dividing $125 by $1.25 produces a maximum position of 100 shares, before considering commissions, spread, and slippage.

This calculation is less exciting than selecting a ticker, but it is the part that keeps one bad outcome from becoming an account-level problem. If the required stop is too wide for your risk limit, reduce the position size. If that creates a position too small to be practical, pass on the trade.

Set Targets and Management Rules

A target should come from the chart and the trade’s risk profile. Prior highs, measured moves, major resistance, and volatility ranges can all help define realistic objective levels.

Calculate the reward-to-risk ratio before entry. A $1.25 stop with a $3.75 target offers 3:1 potential reward-to-risk. That does not guarantee a profitable trade, but it gives the setup room to remain worthwhile even with a modest win rate.

Decide in advance how you will manage a winning position. Will you take partial profits at the first target and trail the remainder? Will you exit the full position at resistance? Will you move the stop to breakeven after price reaches 1R, where 1R equals your initial risk? These choices depend on volatility and strategy, but they should not be invented after a green candle appears.

Be equally clear about early exits. If a breakout immediately fails and closes back inside its prior range, that may signal a lower-quality setup even before the stop is reached. A plan can allow for discretionary exits, provided the condition is defined rather than emotional.

Use a Repeatable Pre-Trade Checklist

Before submitting an order, review the same operational questions every time:

Is the broader market context supportive, neutral, or a direct headwind?
Does the asset show alignment across price structure, trend, momentum, and relevant fundamentals?
Are entry zone, invalidation level, target, and position size written down?
Is the planned reward sufficient for the risk, including the possibility of slippage?
Is there an event risk during the intended holding period?

A structured platform such as Montbon Analytics can speed up this review by combining technical signals, multi-timeframe moving averages, Elliott Wave context, and fundamentals into one score and operational levels. Treat that output as a second opinion, not a replacement for your own risk rules. The useful question is whether the analysis confirms your thesis, identifies a conflict you missed, or suggests the trade is not sufficiently aligned.

Review the Trade Without Rewriting History

Your journal should record more than profit or loss. Save the setup type, market condition, entry rationale, stop, target, position size, and whether you followed the plan. After the trade closes, note what actually happened: Did the setup fail, did execution deviate, or was the thesis correct but timing poor?

Reviewing a sample of trades reveals patterns that single outcomes hide. You may find that pullbacks outperform breakouts in volatile markets, that your stops are consistently too tight, or that trades entered before earnings distort your results. That is actionable evidence.

Do not judge a disciplined loss as a failure or an undisciplined win as success. A swing trade plan is designed to make your process measurable across many trades. The next chart will always offer another opinion. Your written rules give you a reason to act only when the opportunity is clear enough to deserve capital.